Schools growth committee ‘crunches numbers’ in first meeting

MADISON – At their first meeting, members of Madison Schools Growth Impact Committee looked at ‘the numbers’ … the future number of residents and the number of dollars to fund Madison City Schools.

Co-chairs Dr. Terri Johnson and Mike Potter presided at the session on Aug. 11. Representing the municipal and schools segments, Mayor Paul Finley and Superintendent Robby Parker attended.

“The focus of the initial meeting was estimating Madison’s future growth,” Potter said. In addition, the committee heard a review of revenue streams for the school district that originate with sales and ad valorem taxes, along with the use of TVA in-lieu-of taxes.

Mary Beth Broeren, the city’s Director of Planning and Economic Development, presented growth estimates for three cases:

* Case 1 — Subdivision growth already approved.

* Case 2 — Growth that aligns with the West Side Master Plan.

* Case 3 — Unconstrained growth, bounded only by topography and municipal limits.

Broeren broke each case into two time domains: 2017 to 2025, followed by 2025 to 2040, Potter said.

“Madison’s population has grown 850 percent from 1980 to the 2010 census. Today, Madison’s population is approximately 48,000 and there are approximately 18,860 households,” Potter said.

The committee estimated the anticipated growth across all analyzed cases between 3,650 and 13,300 additional homes. “This implies Madison could see a population size somewhere between 56,000 to 83,000 in the next 10 to 25 years,” Potter said.

Currently, MCS’ enrollment exceeds 10,500. Middle schools are most crowded at 94-percent capacity. “None of the future growth scenarios assessed can be met by the current capacity of MCS,” Potter said.

The committee also discussed the need to gather further insights into values of historical homes and economic growth data, along with methods that other school districts follow to meet growth challenges.

Committee members received action items for additional material to review at their next meeting. The committee hopes to make an initial presentation to Madison City Council and Madison Board of Education in early September.