By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist, Alabama Emergency Management Agency
An initial wave of thunderstorms will likely affect areas north of I20 between 11 pm Saturday and 10 am Sunday, but only small hail is currently expected.
There are still questions about the intensity of thunderstorm development between 11 am – 4 pm. A warm layer of air around 5000 feet will act like a lid on “severe” thunderstorm development. However, if the developing thunderstorms can break through this lid, the storms will quickly become supercells with high tornado potential.
After 5 pm, the lid will no longer be a factor, and clusters of storms, including supercells, will likely form across the western half of the state and spread eastward. In addition, an intense line of storms will enter the northwest sections of Alabama after 9 pm. This activity will continue to push eastward and exit the southeast sections of the state between 3 am-6 am Monday.
The entire state remains under the threat of long-track EF2 or greater tornadoes, as well as a high probability of significant straight-line wind damage. Between 2-4 inches of rain is forecast north of I20. There could be isolated flash flooding, especially during the Sunday overnight hours into early Monday morning.
Since this is an evolving situation, expect to see potential changes to severe weather timing in later updates.
For those that depend upon community shelters during severe weather, remember it is up to local Emergency Management or other local officials to decide whether or not the shelters will be open due to the ongoing pandemic. It would be unwise to not know by today if your particular shelter is open or not Sunday into Monday morning.
If you live in a mobile/manufactured home, consider going to a more sturdy structure before the severe weather strikes.
Review your safety plans before Sunday, be able to receive watches and warnings from multiple sources (do not count outdoor sirens), and act immediately if a warning is issued. You can find out more information by going to https://www.ready.gov/severe-weather
