Ida to become major hurricane with catastropic impacts

By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist

Alabama Emergency Management Agency

CLANTON – A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Washington, Mobile and Baldwin counties and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Mobile and Baldwin counties.  A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect for portions of southwest Alabama beginning at 7 am Sunday.

There are no significant changes to Ida’s track or intensity forecast from Friday afternoon.  Landfall will occur along the Louisiana coast, forecast to be a Category 4 with sustained winds of 140 mph and gusts to 165 mph.  Catastrophic damage will occur near the center of Ida.

Rainbands will begin to reach the Alabama coast by late morning or early afternoon today, then spread inland tonight into Sunday. The tornado threat will be low today.

There remains a 40-60% chance of sustained tropical storm-force winds beginning Sunday morning.  All preparedness plans near the coast should be completed by sunset today.

The tornado threat will increase Sunday across the southern and western portions of the state and continue into Monday across much of the state.  On Tuesday, the tornado threat will likely be confined to the northern half of Alabama.  An interesting note is that Katrina had a similar path and strength as Ida.   Katrina produced a total of 59 tornadoes, so this threat should not be taken lightly.

Widespread 3-6 inches of rain will occur across the western half of the state by Wednesday morning, with 6-8 inches near the coast.  There could be spots that receive 12+ inches of rain, resulting in significant flash flooding.  Water levels along the coast and Mobile Bay will begin to rise tonight, peaking Sunday night into Monday.  A storm surge of 2-4 feet above ground level is forecast.