By Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist
Alabama Emergency Management Agency
FRIDAY UPDATE – Unfortunately, weather parameters continue to point toward significant and widespread severe weather Sunday into early Monday. The entire state has between a 30% to over 45% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any point for all of Alabama. This is NOT like a 30%-45% chance of rain. Chances of actual severe weather are typically much lower, so these probabilities are actually extremely high.
Furthermore, the entire state is under a “hatched” area for significant severe storms. “Significant” is defined as an EF2 (strong) or greater tornado, straight-line wind speeds of 75 mph or higher, and/or hail 2 inches or greater in diameter. Long-tracked tornadoes are also possible. The bottom line is that this will be a significant statewide event.
Concerning timing, a few storms are expected to develop along a northward moving warm front south of Hwy 80/I85 after 12 am Sunday, potentially reaching the I20 corridor between 3 am and 6 am. Hail will be the primary threat.
Later in the day, parameters are such that supercells with potential tornadoes will develop both ahead of and within an intense line of storms. Supercells could develop in southwest AL as early as 10 am Sunday, but more than likely after 12 pm west of I65, with storms developing east of I65 later in the afternoon. The expected intense line of storms will reach northwest AL around 7 pm and exit the southeast sections around 7 am Monday. Widespread straight-line wind damage as well as strong tornadoes are possible within the line.
For those that depend upon community shelters during severe weather, today is likely the last day to contact your local Emergency Management Agency and find out if and when they will be open, as well as any possible restrictions due to the ongoing virus pandemic. It is TOO LATE if you wait until the weekend to find out this information.
If you live in a mobile/manufactured home, consider going to a more sturdy structure before the severe weather strikes.
Review your safety plans before Sunday, be able to receive watches and warnings from multiple sources (do not count outdoor sirens), and act immediately if a warning is issued. You can find out more information by going to https://www.ready.gov/severe-weather
